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The Winds Of
War ?
Kong Sez:
The Winds of War are blowing folks!
"When the real need arises, the time to prepare has passed!"
Dr. Gary North, Ph.D., economic historian, makes it very clear as to What Is Going On from his member only website. For subscription, click below.
If Obama Does Not Impose Sanctions on Iran Israel Is Likely to Strike.
Gary North
Sept 23, 2009
Stratfor's site specializes in international relations. The head of the organization, George Friedman, is a high-ranking member of the Council on Foreign Relations.
Stratfor has produced a detailed report on the challenge facing Obama. He made a promise to Israel. He will impose sanctions on Iran if Iran does not scrap its nuclear program. It looks as though Iran will not discuss the program with the West. This leaves Obama in a difficult position.
Commentary:
From The Editor's Desk of ChemBioUpdate—Read what Dr. North has to say, then read what the Stratfor Geopolitical Intelligence Report has to say.
If he fails to act, the Israelis will be off the hook. They will not abide by their quid pro quo: not attack.
What then? What I have warned would happen.
An Israeli airstrike would involve the United States in two ways. First, it would have to pass through Iraqi airspace controlled by the United States, at which point no one would believe that the Americans weren't complicit. Second, the likely Iranian response to an Israeli airstrike would be to mine the Strait of Hormuz and other key points in the Persian Gulf — something the Iranians have said they would do, and something they have the ability to do.
Some have pointed out that the Iranians would be hurting themselves as much as the West, as this would cripple their energy exports. And it must be remembered that 40 percent of globally traded oil exports pass through Hormuz. The effect of mining the Persian Gulf would be devastating to oil prices and to the global economy at a time when the global economy doesn't need more grief. But the economic pain Iran would experience from such a move could prove tolerable relative to the pain that would be experienced by the world's major energy importers. Meanwhile, the Russians would be free to export oil at extraordinarily high prices.
The Russians will clean up at the West's expense. They have made it clear that they oppose sanctions against Iran. That pushes the region closer to war. Russia will win this game. The U.S. will not.
When we speak to people in Tehran, Washington and Moscow, we get the sense that they are unaware that the current situation might spin out of control. In Moscow, the scenario is dismissed because the general view is that Obama is weak and inexperienced and is frightened of military confrontation; the assumption is that he will find a way to bring the Israelis under control.
It isn't clear that Obama can do that, however. The Israelis don't trust him, and Iran is a core issue for them. The more Obama presses them on settlements the more they are convinced that Washington no longer cares about Israeli interests. And that means they are on their own, but free to act.
If oil prices double, which would be a conservative result, the fragile recovery would abort. Oil prices would more than double.
The conventional wisdom is wrong.
Everyone thinks we are on a known roadmap, when in reality, one of the players — Israel — has the ability and interest to redraw the roadmap. Netanyahu has been signaling in many ways that he intends to do just this. Everyone seems to believe he won't. We aren't so sure.
With Netanyahu as Prime Minister, Israel is likely to push a more confrontational foreign policy with respect to Iran. This is why I think the clock is ticking. We are seeing the conventional media becoming more aware of this threat, but the topic is still secondary. There is no sense of urgency. Yet the magnitude of the economic risk is great.
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Subduction:
It's Still Coming! Subduction: One Plate Goes Under Another As The Other Goes Over The Former.Interestingly...Early Church Saints Said: "Mountains Will Roll Over Another." This Sounds Like They Saw Subduction.
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From now on, Folks, it's gonna get pretty rough! In fact, downright cussed. Mr. Ugly Is Showing Now!
But For Now...Keep RunningKeep Your Purse and Scrip With You—Luke 22:36And NowGet Two Guns—Luke 22:36–38Before The New Dude Won't Let You Have Them
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